Wednesday, 17 June 2026 - FOMC Decision: The Federal Open Market Committee holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed to decide on interest rates.
x̄ Latest Rate: 4.15%
x̄ 1-Year Old Rate: 4.32%
10-Year Less 2-Year: 0.51%
10-Year Less 3-Month: 0.91%
USD(VXY): 99.28 (+0.462, 0.47%)
Bonds (TLT): 83.66 (-1.26, 1.48%)
Recession Indicator
Positive spread (10-Year yield > 2-Year yield) This is the normal situation. Longer-term bonds offer higher yields to compensate investors for greater risks (inflation, interest rate changes over time). A steep positive spread often signals expectations of solid economic growth and/or higher future inflation/interest rates. Near zero / flattening (spread approaching 0%) The yield curve flattens. This can indicate uncertainty, slowing growth expectations, or a transition phase in the economic cycle (often when the Fed is tightening policy). Negative spread (10-Year yield < 2-Year yield) This is called an inverted yield curve. It is widely regarded as a leading recession indicator.
0.9913 (PR 35.43%)
0.9879 (PR 48.63%)
0.9769 (PR 75%)
0.9341 (PR 19.05%)
0.9571 (PR 0%)
0.9628 (PR 0%)
0.9643 (PR 0%)
0.8977 (PR 0%)
1.2537 (PR 5.12%)
In statistics, the Percentile Rank (PR) of a given score is the percentage of scores in its frequency distribution that are less than that score.
If the number is smaller than the smallest over the previous year (in this case), the PR is 0%, or if it is larger than the largest over the previous year (in this case), the PR is 100%. We are using a 1-Year PR here for reference.
